If you wait you may be able to catch Florida International at 10 points. During the pre-season I mentioned how much I liked Indiana on multiple podcasts, but I see tremendous value in backing FIU on Thursday night. For one this game is going to be played in Miami. The heat could play a factor, but this is a long trip for Indiana, and it's hard to see them being excited for this game. This is a team that struggled to beat Southern Illinois at home to open up last season and they only beat FIU 36-22 a year ago at home.
There really is a lot to like about Indiana this year with 16 starters returning, but I think they will have value later in the year. There are question marks with three of their best players missing on offense. RB Jordan Howard, drafted by the Bears, Nate Sudfeld, drafted by the Redskins, and OT Jason Spriggs drafted by the Packers in the 2nd round all gone. They bring in a big juco transfer in Richard Lagow to be the QB, but this is his 4th school and conference for a reason.. I do think he will thrive in Kevin Wilson offense, but it's not going to happen from day 1. I don't think it's enough to overcome the yearly defense issues this team has to win by double digits on the road.
FIU, had serious issues last year with injury luck. That has created depth for 2016 and I expect them to over achieve against the odds. I really like what Ron Turner has done here in his 4th year they have improved from 1 win, 4 wins, to 5 wins and are poised to make a bowl game. Unlike Indiana they have a QB starting for his third year in Alex McGough. The offense is likely to improve again as it did last year by 6 points per game. The defense I think will get back to 2014 when they were really good. Factor in that the defense lost 3 of their top 5 DB's, and 2 of their starting LB played a total of 5 games. The offense also had injury issues with 3 starting offensive linemen combined for 9 total starts. This year they have a strong group up front and should have some balance. The offense was a dink and dunk type last year and the year before they ran the ball a ton so I expect a combination of that in 2016. In 2014 they ran the ball 65% of time transitioning to 45% in 2015. To me that is signs of a good coach. They had to move towards the pass given their injury situation and what they had to work with. 2016, if this team can stay healthy will be the best yet under Turner. I expect them to be able to give Indiana a scare here.
